The Louisiana governor’s race is becoming a referendum on David Vitter

The Louisiana governor’s race is becoming a referendum on David Vitter, not Barack Obama, and that’s a race that Vitter can’t win.

With the runoff just 11 days away, public polls put the Republican senator down anywhere from 11 points to 20 points. Early voting has already started.

Now under heavy fire on TV for his participation in a prostitution ring, something he admitted only elliptically to in 2007, Vitter is up today with a television ad that shows him sitting with his wife and kids around a kitchen table.

“Fifteen years ago, I failed my family but found forgiveness and love,” the senior senator says to camera. “I learned that our falls aren’t what define us, but rather how we get up, accept responsibility and earn redemption. Now Louisiana has fallen on hard times … And as your governor, I’ll get up every day to fight for you.” Watch:

This comes in response to Democrat John Bel Edwards going on the air over the weekend with the most provocative attack ad of the year. A female narrator notes that Edwards served as an Army Ranger in the 82^nd Airborne Division before noting that Vitter missed a 2001 House vote honoring 28 slain soldiers at roughly the same time that he took a call on his cell phone from the D.C. Madam. “David Vitter chose prostitutes over patriots,” a female narrator says. “Now the choice is yours.” Watch:

Vitter got just 23 percent in last month’s jungle primary. [In Louisiana, all the candidates square off on the same ballot and then the top two finishers face each other in a runoff a few weeks later.] Republican Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, one of Vitter’s opponents, endorsed the Democrat last week. The other Republican in the race, Scott Angelle, has refused to endorse Vitter and kept a low profile.

Funny: The initial title for the Vitter ad was “Hard Times.” After getting mocked on social media because of the connotations, the campaign changed it on YouTube to “Difficult Times.”

Can Vitter overcome this? Did the hooker attack go too far? Vitter is underwater, viewed more unfavorably than favorably. The redemption play is part of a broader strategy to increase his positives. He needs to get more Republicans to like him in order to win. Comparing the ad to Jack Conway’s Aqua Buddha spot against Rand Paul, Republicans call it desperate. Democrats say you can’t rest on your lead in a red state like Louisiana and argue that there’s a lot of questions Vitter has still never answered about the scandal.

To be sure, Vitter has a clear path to victory in the deep-red Pelican State, which hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since 2008. The president remains toxically unpopular in the state (his approval rating is in the low 30s). While Edwards acknowledges voting for Obama, it’s a much harder sell to tie him to Obama than it was with Mary Landrieu in last year’s Senate race.

One reason Landrieu got crushed so badly last year was that her bottom fell out with whites, especially pro-life Catholics. Exit polls showed that one in five white voters supported her reelection. Edwards, who opposes abortion rights, has been faring well among these voters in the polls. About a third of the electorate could be African-American, which gives Democrats a natural base to build from.

Outgoing Gov. Bobby Jindal is not popular back home, which in theory makes him a drag on Vitter, but it is widely known inside the state just how much the two guys despise each other. That makes it hard for Dems to link them.

We should still be a little bit cautious about handicapping. The polls were wrong ahead of last week’s off-year election in Kentucky. Not a single survey showed Republican Matt Bevin in the lead, yet he won by 9 points. Larry Sabato’s outfit, the University of Virginia’sCenter for Politics, moved the contest yesterday from Leans Republican to Toss-Up. Louisiana State University plays Ole Miss, on the road, at 3:30 the Saturday of the runoff, which could dampen turnout.

A debate tonight could be pivotal. Edwards and Vitter will go at each other mano a mano for the first time. “I believe the gloves will be off,” Edwards told the New Orleans Advocate. “It will be entertaining for a lot of folks.” You can watch a livestream of the 7 p.m. Central/8 p.m. Eastern debate here.

If Vitter loses next week, there is buzz among Republicans in Louisiana and Washington that he would NOT run for reelection to the Senate in 2016. A loss in the gubernatorial contest would open him up to a serious GOP challenger, and it would be much harder to hit up the donors who have spent this year funding his campaign. Vitter only had $26,216 in his federal campaign account at the end of September.

Democratic candidate for governor John Bel Edwards, left, speaks after Republican Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, right, announced his endorsement of Edwards last Thursday in Baton Rouge. Dardenne, who ran fourth in the primary, chose Edwards over David Vitter. (AP Photo/Melinda Deslatte)