Latest Democracy Corps Poll Testing Messages on Reform
Republicans in the Senate decided to base their opposition to financial reform using a message developed by GOP pollster Frank Luntz, arguing that reform amounts to bailouts for Wall Street banks.
But our polling reveals this to be the weakest argument available to Republicans. This approach is 8 to 11 points weaker than the other messages against reform and 35 to 40 points worse than arguments in favor of it.
This Republican anti–reform message as framed by Luntz and parroted by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — that reform provides for an institutionalized taxpayer bailout for Wall Street — falls completely flat. The latest Democracy Corps poll finds only 27 percent saying that hearing such a message would make them much less or somewhat less likely to support a reform bill. More voters, 46 percent, actually say this argument would make them more likely to support the Democrats’ reform bill, not less. And the Luntz message fails to win support even among the Republican base.
Republicans would have been better off supporting President Obama’s financial reforms and working with him on economic growth strategies.
As one of us recently argued, financial reform is a win–win–win situation for Democrats. First, it puts Republicans on the wrong side of a popular issue. Second, when Republicans fold (as they are already in the process of doing) it offers a major legislative victory accomplished through bipartisan support. And third, a strong bill will be good for the American people, protecting them from the abuses of big banks and avoiding future financial meltdowns.
This analysis is based on a Democracy Corps survey among 1,000 2008 voters (872 likely 2010 voters) conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research from April 17–20, 2010.
Clay and his partner of 20 years, Harold, lived in California. Clay and Harold made diligent efforts to protect their legal rights, and had their legal paperwork in place-wills, powers of attorney, and medical directives, all naming each other. Harold was 88 years old and in frail medical condition, but still living at home with Clay, 77, who was in good health.
One evening, Harold fell down the front steps of their home and was taken to the hospital. Based on their medical directives alone, Clay should have been consulted in Harold's care from the first moment. Tragically, county and health care workers instead refused to allow Clay to see Harold in the hospital. The county then ultimately went one step further by isolating the couple from each other, placing the men in separate nursing homes. Ignoring Clay's significant role in Harold's life, the county continued to treat Harold like he had no family and went to court seeking the power to make financial decisions on his behalf. Outrageously, the county represented to the judge that Clay was merely Harold's "roommate." The court denied their efforts, but did grant the county limited access to one of Harold's bank accounts to pay for his care.
What happened next is even more chilling: without authority, without determining the value of Clay and Harold's possessions accumulated over the course of their 20 years together or making any effort to determine which items belonged to whom, the county took everything Harold and Clay owned and auctioned off all of their belongings. Adding further insult to grave injury, the county removed Clay from his home and confined him to a nursing home against his will. The county workers then terminated Clay and Harold's lease and surrendered the home they had shared for many years to the landlord.
Three months after he was hospitalized, Harold died in the nursing home. Because of the county's actions, Clay missed the final months he should have had with his partner of 20 years. Compounding this tragedy, Clay has literally nothing left of the home he had shared with Harold or the life he was living up until the day that Harold fell, because he has been unable to recover any of his property.
Gay rights activist Dan Choi believes the leaders of his movement have been too soft on the President.
During his campaign, President Obama promised to repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell, the 1993 military law that bans gay troops from openly declaring their sexuality while in service.
But after delaying action on the issue for a year, the President has instructed the Pentagon to take another year and review the implications of a repeal.
In the meantime, the Pentagon has backed off from kicking out soldiers who declare they are gay. Lawmakers too have started conducting hearings about the repeal.
In an interview with Congress.org, Choi explained why he decided to chain himself to the White House fence recently to demand an immediate appeal.
C-SPAN's screening also get renewed attention last week after a caller suggested the channel was letting too many black voters through on its phone lines.
A recent example is a Harris poll that asked whether each of 15 statements about Barack Obama is true or false. In every single case, the less schooling people had, the more likely they were to believe that false things are true.
For example, 18 percent of Americans with high school or less education think that the president may be the Anti-Christ. That's right, nearly one out of five people who are eligible to vote, same as you, believe Obama is the bad guy in The Omen. But only 13 percent of people with some college believe that; and 9 percent of college graduates; and down to 4 percent of people who've had some post-graduate education.
It's the same descending scale with "He is doing many of the things that Hitler did." Twenty-four percent of high-school-or-less say yes; 20 percent of some-college; 18 percent of college grads; but only 10 percent of post-grads. "He was not born in the United States and so is not eligible to be president": 32, then 22, then 21, then 7. "He is a Muslim": 43, 30, 24, 9. "He wants to turn over the sovereignty of the United States to a one world government": 37, 28, 21, 12. You get the idea.
Senate Democrats are preparing a proposal to create a new regulator of consumer financial services products.
Under a bill being written by Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), a new division of the Federal Reserve would write rules about mortgages, credit cards and other consumer products, but it would not enforce the rules.
The proposal reflects compromises suggested by Republican senators during negotiations which have since ended. The new plan is not expected to get much GOP support.
There are two ways of reading the latest mess for Republican chairman, the Daily Caller saying that Michael Steel spends oodles on chartered planes, fancy hotels and, worst of all, the bondage nightclub Voyeur West Hollywood. The Republican National Committee says that last expense was actually filed by a staffer and that Steele never went to the club or knew about the spending on it.
First, you can understand why a certain set of Republicans would want a new chairman. The current one, Michael Steele, has used his job to rake in speaking fees, called for an "off the hook" makeover to reach the hip-hop crowd and everyone "including one-armed midgets," and suggested his critics should "shut up" and either fire him or "get out of the way" -- and those are just a few of the headlines from the Republican-centric Washington Times. When a Newsweek blog posts the headline "Is It Time for Michael Steele to Go?" the anti-Steele campaign has gotten just what it hoped for.
For a more nuanced view, try Marc Ambinder's Atlantic post "Michael Steele's Enemies Within." Ambinder writes that it's amazing Steele has survived so many embarrassments:
The sad truth for the RNC chairman is that he escapes censure because his party isn't organized enough to censure him, because Steele wields too little power to be considered a threat, and because the locus of Republican energy these days can be found in the House. These last two errors have been made by staffers, but they point to a culture of casualty at the RNC. No one, it seems, is afraid of enough the boss to go out of their to avoid embarrassing him or the party.
The Vatican has denied a series of media reports alleging that Pope Benedict, before being elected pontiff, may have looked the other way in cases of abuse in his native Germany and in the United States. Last week, the Vatican strongly defended its decision not to defrock the Wisconsin-based priest Father Lawrence Murphy, who abused some 200 deaf boys in the 1950s and ’60s. The National Catholic Reporter says the Pope must be ready to answer questions and called the scandal “the largest institutional crisis in centuries, possibly in church history.”
On Sunday night, the House of Representatives passed the reconciliation bill for health care reform and college affordability. Yesterday, President Obama signed health care reform into law.
A socialist? A Muslim? Anti-American? The Anti-Christ? Large minorities of Americans hold some remarkable opinions
A new book, Wingnuts: How the Lunatic Fringe Is Hijacking America by John Avlon describes the large numbers of Americans who hold extreme views of President Obama. This Harris Poll seeks to measure how many people are involved. It finds that 40% of adults believe he is a socialist. More than 30% think he wants to take away Americans’ right to own guns and that he is a Muslim. More than 25% believe he wants to turn over the sovereignty of the United States to a world government, has done many things that are unconstitutional, that he resents America’s heritage, and that he does what Wall Street tells him to do.
More than 20% believe he was not born in the United States, that he is “the domestic enemy the U.S. Constitution speaks of,” that he is racist and anti-American, and that he “wants to use an economic collapse or terrorist attack as an excuse to take dictatorial powers.” Fully 20% think he is “doing many of the things that Hitler did,” while 14% believe “he may be the anti-Christ” and 13% think “he wants the terrorists to win.”
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,320 adults surveyed online between March 1 and 8, 2010 by Harris Interactive.
The actual percentages of adults who believe these things are true are as follows:
·He is a socialist (40%)
·He wants to take away Americans’ right to own guns (38%)
·He is a Muslim (32%)
·He wants to turn over the sovereignty of the United States to a one world government (29%)
·He has done many things that are unconstitutional (29%)
·He resents America’s heritage (27%)
·He does what Wall Street and the bankers tell him to do (27%)
·He was not born in the United States and so is not eligible to be president (25%)
·He is a domestic enemy that the U.S. Constitutions speaks of (25%)
·He is a racist (23%)
·He is anti-American (23%)
·He wants to use an economic collapse or terrorist attack as an excuse to take dictatorial powers (23%)
·He is doing many of the things that Hitler did (20%)
·He may be the Anti-Christ (14%)
·He wants the terrorists to win (13%)
What Republicans, Democrats and Independents think
There are – no surprise here – huge differences between what Republicans and Democrats believe. Majorities of Republicans believe that President Obama:
·Is a socialist (67%)
·Wants to take away Americans’ right to own guns (61%)
·Is a Muslim (57%)
·Wants to turn over the sovereignty of the United States to a one world government (51%); and
·Has done many things that are unconstitutional (55%).
Also large numbers of Republicans also believe that President Obama:
·Resents America’s heritage (47%)
·Does what Wall Street and the bankers tell him to do (40%)
·Was not born in the United States and so is not eligible to be president (45%)
·Is the “domestic enemy that the U.S. Constitution speaks of” (45%)
·Is a racist (42%)
·Want to use an economic collapse or terrorist attack as an excuse to take dictatorial powers (41%)
·Is doing many of the things that Hitler did (38%).
Even more remarkable perhaps, fully 24% of Republicans believe that “he may be the Anti-Christ” and 22% believe “he wants the terrorists to win.”
While few Democrats believe any of these things, the proportions of Independents who do so are close to the national averages.
One big surprise it that many more Republicans (40%) than Democrats (15%) believe the president does what Wall Street and the bankers tell him to do.
Differences by education
These replies are also strongly correlated with education. The less education people have had the more likely they are to believe all of these statements. Consider these differences between those with no college education and those with post-graduate education:
·He is a socialist (45% and 20%)
·He wants to take away Americans’ right to own guns (45% and 19%)
·He is a Muslim (43% and 9%)
·He was not born in the United States so is not eligible to be president (32% and 7%)
·He is a racist (28% and 9%)
·He is anti-American (27% and 9%)
·He is doing many of the things Hitler did (24% and 10%).
After reviewing these findings, John Avlon comments, "These new numbers are shocking but not surprising – they detail the extent to which Wingnuts are hijacking our politics. This poll should be a wake-up call to all Americans about the real costs of using fear and hate to pump up hyper-partisanship. We are playing with dynamite by demonizing our president and dividing our country in the process. Americans need to remember the perspective that Wingnuts always forget – patriotism is more important than partisanship."
So what?
So what indeed! These responses recall a favorite saying of our founder Lou Harris that “when you don’t want to publish a poll finding you dislike, you should get out of the business.” The very large numbers of people who believe all these things of President Obama help to explain the size and strength of the Tea Party Movement, a topic that will be addressed in another Harris Poll in a few days time.
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States March 1 and 8, 2010 among 2,320 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
J37772
Q976
The Harris Poll®#42, March 24, 2010
By Humphrey Taylor, Chairman, The Harris Poll, Harris Interactive
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world’s leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what’s next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.
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