The great Republican miscalculation

illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Imagine if Brett Kavanaugh had offered his emotional, tearful, you-ruined-my-life opening speech to the Judiciary Committee — and then called for a quick FBI probe to clear his name and perhaps find the true assailant. 

• Imagine if it were he who volunteered to endure another week of scrutiny and attacks for the good of the court, the country, Dr. Ford.
• He would have looked confident, humble, even a tad heroic, given the president who nominated him opposed the FBI probe. 

Well, he and Republicans had an epic failure of imagination, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes:

• Instead, they were forced reluctantly and publicly into what should have been a fairly easy-to-anticipate moderate compromise: agree to a vote after a quick FBI probe.
• Why it matters: Instead of looking hungry for truth, Kavanaugh heads into the week looking fearful of findings. 

There's a reason for this miscalculation:

• Republicans, from the earliest days of the allegations, were overly confident they could just jam this through, several people involved the process tell us. 
• They thought he would be better defending himself — and that Dr. Ford would seem less credible. 
• Republicans treated this like a bare-knuckles political fight. They calculated a Fox News appearance, a Trump endorsement, a headstrong Mitch McConnell, a fired-up base, a fast vote would hold the party together.
• In the GOP’s defense, the strategy might have worked had Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) not changed his mind at the very last minute. 

In an interview posted this morning, Flake  tells The Atlantic's McCay Coppins that his dramatic call for further FBI review came because he felt the Senate was "coming apart at the seams":

• "I’m a conservative. He’s a conservative. I plan to support him unless they turn up something — and they might."

Source: Axios.com

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‘Most sh*thead things I’ve seen’: John Oliver blasts Trump and Fox News for attacking Dr. Ford by claiming her parents didn’t love her

You can throw you fancy snazzy smart TV out the Window

* Editors note I have not turned on a TV since 2010

Big tech companies with lots of cash have officially crashed the TV industry.

Driving the news: Netflix tied HBO in Emmy wins Monday night, putting an end to HBO's 17 year winning streak. It marks the first time in Emmy history that a streaming company has joined a traditional broadcaster in taking home the most awards. And it's the first time any tech company has done so at a major U.S. awards show.

The big picture: Traditional media companies are losing some of their best talent, accolades and potential deals to their West Coast competitors while they try to figure out how to survive massive changes to how people consume content.

• Amazon Prime Video and Netflix are hitting growth saturation points in the U.S., having penetrated so many U.S. households already.
• At the same time, a record number of people are ditching the Pay-TV subscriptions that include legacy cable and broadcast networks.

Between the lines: Awards aren't always the best measure of how TV companies stack up against tech in creative ambition, (the same shows on streaming wouldn't necessarily work on broadcast TV, as Business Insider's Mike Shields notes), but they do help lure producers and actors for future projects.

Speaking of talent: Producers and directors from legacy media networks are moving to tech companies in search of better opportunities at more innovative places.

• Amazon just announced an exclusive deal to poach Game of Thrones writer Bryan Cogman from HBO. Netflix inked an exclusive deal with ABC writer Kenya Barris last month, who's responsible for hit shows like “Black-ish" for a reported $100 million. She's the third $100 million+ mega-hire for Netflix, after it poached ABC and FX heavyweights, Shonda Rhimes and Ryan Murphy.
• Even politicians like Barack Obama and Joe Biden, are launching streaming shows on platforms like Netflix and Facebook, not linear TV networks.

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How will sexual assault claims affect Kavanaugh’s confirmation

Brace yourselves. The woman accusing Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when they were both teenagers is scheduled to testify in a public Senate hearing Monday. And he will have an opportunity to respond at the same hearing.

Here’s what you need to know.

Senate showdown

Kavanaugh and his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, have been invited to speak before the Senate Judiciary Committee to "give these recent allegations a full airing," chairman Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said.

President Donald Trump expressed support for his nominee and said that there's no rush on the confirmation vote. "If it takes a little delay, it'll take a little delay," Trump told reporters at the White House Monday.

Democrats are not satisfied with the public hearing and are still pushing for an FBI investigation into the allegations. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., said that going ahead with a hearing before an investigation is complete is "just a sham and a charade."

The hearings will likely be the most contentious "he said, she said" confrontation since Anita Hill's testimony at Justice Clarence Thomas' nomination captivated the nation in 1991. They also could further divide an already polarized nation. "Meet the Press" moderator and NBC News political director Chuck Todd likened their explosive potential to "four sticks of dynamite wrapped in radioactive material."

Several far-right news websites have already attacked Ford, who teaches psychology and statistics at Palo Alto University. Except they went after the wrong college professor and had to issue corrections after the articles went viral.

How will the controversy surrounding Kavanaugh's nomination impact the midterms? NBC News' political correspondent Steve Kornacki will host a livestream at 12 p.m. ETto discuss the latest developments in the race for the House.

S So

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Republicans plan to hard and dirty to cram through a unvetted and unqualified SCOTUS seat for life

Strategists advising Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh plan to use aggressive tactics this week in response to the public accusation of a "stumbling drunk" sexual assault in high school that instantly imperiled his confirmation, top sources tell Jonathan Swan:

• Some involved in the process are going to urge Senate leaders to call on the accuser — Christine Blasey Ford, who went on the record with The Washington Post's Emma Brown — to testify publicly this week, ahead of Thursday's scheduled Judiciary Committee vote. This gambit basically bets that she will decline, and Republicans can then say that they tried to investigate further.
• A source close to the process said that if Democrats sink Kavanaugh "we’ll just bring in someone more conservative."

There was extreme queasiness in Kavanaugh's camp last night:

• Ford, a professor at Palo Alto University, is represented by Lisa Katz, a Washington lawyer specializing in sexual harassment cases.
• Republicans won't be surprised if Ford holds a press conference or gives a TV interview, which would raise the stakes considerably.
• The initial news coverage was brutal ... N.Y. Times: "thrown into uncertainty” ... WashPost: "nomination suddenly in doubt” ... Wall Street Journal: "injecting immediate uncertainty” ... AP: "thrust into turmoil."

Be smart: The hardball tactics are designed to muscle through the confirmation before it can be further imperiled.

• Republicans got more worried as the evening went along, but privately were optimistic about winning the P.R. fight: It's her word, backed by her therapist's notes, versus Kavanaugh and another man alleged to be in the room.

Kavanaugh re-issued his previous statement: "I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation. I did not do this back in high school or at any time."

• The other participant named by Ford, Mark Judge, said he has "no recollection of any of the events described."

Source and links Axios.com


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Trump will Be Texting The Entire County Next week

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) next week will test the Emergency Alert System, which allows the President to address Americans via text message in the event of a national emergency.

The test alert, which will be sent at 2:18 p.m. ET on Sept. 20, will note that it’s a test of the system. At that time, all cell phone within the range of a cell tower will receive the message.

Basically, this is a reminder that in the event of a national emergency, President Trump will be able to reach all of us via text message.

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Trump campaign chief Paul Manafort agrees to cooperate with special counsel Robert Mueller, pleads guilty to conspiracy charges

Paul Manafort to cooperate with Mueller as part of plea deal  5 Hours Ago | 06:28

Paul Manafort, who once headed President Donald Trump's campaign, pleaded guilty Friday to conspiracy charges and has agreed to cooperate with special counsel Robert Mueller's ongoing investigations.

Manafort's plea deal with Mueller dramatically ramps up the legal and political danger already facing Trump, who is being eyed by the special counsel for possible obstruction of justice.

The deal came three days before the scheduled start of jury selection in U.S. District Court in Washington for Manafort's second trial. It also came several weeks after Trump blasted the practice of "flipping" — prosecutors getting defendants to cooperate against other people by offering them a plea deal — and said the commonly used tactic "almost ought to be illegal."

Prosecutors said the Manafort's own deal, which will require him to forfeit an estimated $46 million in assets, includes a 17-page cooperation agreement with Mueller in which he will help the special counsel cooperate "in any and all matter as to which the government deems the cooperation relevant."

Manafort attorney: Tough day for Mr. Manafort, but he's accepted responsibility  5 Hours Ago | 03:53

Specificially, Manafort must participate in interviews with investigators, provide documents and testify, if needed.

The guilty plea by Manafort, 69, relates to money earned from consulting work on behalf of pro-Russia politicians in Ukraine and predate his tenure as chairman of Trump's presidential campaign.

However, during his time on the campaign, he participated in a controversial meeting with Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, with a Russian lawyer who supposedly had negative information about Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

Mueller is investigating Russia's interference in the 2016 election and possible collusion by members of Trump's campaign in that effort. Mueller is also looking into whether Trump obstructed justice in an effort to influence the Russia probe.

The special counsel previously obtained guilty pleas to crimes from Trump's ex-national security advisor Michael Flynn, campaign advisor George Papadopoulos and former Trump campaign official Rick Gates, who was a Manafort associate.

Last month, Trump's former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, pleaded guilty to charges brought by federal prosecutors in New York. Those included tax crimes and a campaign finance charge related to the $130,000 hush-money payment Cohen said he gave to porn star Stormy Daniels at Trump's behest to keep her quiet about an affair she says she had with the president, who denies that tryst occurred.

Artist: Art Lien

A courtroom sketch showing Paul Manafort agreeing to a guilty plea on Sept. 14th, 2018. 

"This had absolutely nothing to do with the President or his victorious 2016 Presidential campaign," said press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the plea hearing was still going on. "It is totally unrelated."

Rudy Giuliani, Trump's lawyer for the Russia probe, said: "Once again an investigation has concluded with a plea having nothing to do with President Trump or the Trump campaign."

"The reason: the President did nothing wrong and Paul Manafort will tell the truth," Giuliani said.

Within minutes of Giuliani issuing that statement, another Trump lawyer, Jay Sekulow, sent a "corrected statement" to reporters that said the same thing but omitted the words "and Paul Manafort will tell the truth."

Manafort, wearing a dark suit, white shirt and purple tie, admitted guilt to revised charges of just two counts of conspiracy, which will effectively consolidate and resolve the two criminal cases against him in Washington and in Virginia federal courts.

The two charges are conspiracy against the United States and conspiracy to obstruct justice by witness tampering. The first count relates to a wide array of underlying criminal conduct.

Entirely misleading to say to American people this exonerates Trump, says former federal prosecutor  6 Hours Ago | 06:24

"Is what the prosecution said true?" Judge Amy Berman Jackson asked Manafort.

"I did. It is," Manafort replied.

The judge then asked, "Are you ready to tell me if you plead guilty?"

"I am. I plead guilty," Manafort replied.

After the plea hearing in the E. Barrett Prettyman courthouse, Manafort's defense lawyer Kevin Downing told reporters it was a "tough day for Mr. Manafort, but he's accepted responsibility, and he wanted to make sure that his family was able to remain safe and live a good life."

"He has accepted responsibility, and this is for conduct that dates back many years, and everybody should remember that," Downing said.

No sentencing date was set for Manafort, who faces up to 10 years in prison, but who would likely get much less time behind bars than that. He also faces fines of up to $500,000 when sentenced.

He will not be sentenced until his cooperation with Mueller is completed.

Manafort was convicted last month in the Virginia case of bank fraud and tax crimes, which also was connected to his work in Ukraine.

Jury selection for his second trial in Washington had been scheduled to begin on Monday for charges that included money laundering, failing to register as an agent of a foreign government and witness tampering.

Friday's plea deal substantially winnows down the more than 20 criminal counts that Manafort either still faced or had already been convicted of. Before the deal, he faced the possibility of decades in prison, which given his age would have effectively been a life term.

Manafort has been held without bond in jail since June after being charged with trying to influence witnesses against him. He will remain in jail pending his sentencing.

Trump last month had contrasted his ex-lawyer Cohen's guilty plea, which did not include a cooperation agreement, with Manafort's stance at the time of having gone through his first criminal trial and not cooperating with Mueller.

"I feel very bad for Paul Manafort and his wonderful family," Trump wrote in an Aug. 22 tweet. " 'Justice' took a 12 year old tax case, among other things, applied tremendous pressure on him and, unlike Michael Cohen, he refused to 'break' - make up stories in order to get a 'deal.' Such respect for a brave man!"

Read Mueller's case against Manafort:

Download the full charging document against Manafort here.

Source CNBC

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