Focus group shows why Donald Trump is here to stay

“I’ve never seen anything like this,” said Frank Luntz. “There is no sign of them leaving. He has created or found the magic formula.”

“He” was Donald Trump. “They” were 29 voters from the D.C. metro area who either supported Trump, were considering it, or had once supported Trump and then cooled on the idea. It was not the first Luntz focus group with Trump voters, but over three hours in an Alexandria conference room last night, he found them hugging their candidate tighter than ever.

The 29 subjects were asked to pick a number between one and 10 to gauge the likelihood that they’d support Trump. At the start of the night, just 10 people said they were at nine or 10. After one hour of mostly negative questions about Trump, 16 said that they were that likely to back him. After the barrage of negative ads, the number fell to just 15 – and only because the attack on his business record was seen as a potential “killer” in a general election.

But nothing else dented the Republican frontrunner. Asked what they liked about Trump, the subjects echoed what he’d said about himself. “He offers things that can’t be bought,” said a middle-aged man named Michael. “He’s not coming from these Monsantos, Kochs or Soros. He doesn’t have any skin he owes to anyone else.”

Asked about Trump’s proposal for a ban on Muslim immigration, 17 of the 29 in the focus group backed it. Several pushed back on the question to say that Trump has only proposed this as a temporary, short-term measure. Several cited the same dubious evidence that Trump does to argue that up to a quarter of Muslims around the world are radicalized.

One big problem for Trump’s opponents: establishment Republicans hold no sway whatsoever with his base. Asked who they’d back in a three-way election between Marco Rubio, Hillary Clinton, and an independent Donald Trump, 19 of the 29 said they would still back Trump. When Ted Cruz was swapped into the question, 14 stuck with Trump. Only after being asked to imagine a scenario where that vote would ensure a Clinton victory did the support fall off.

There was just as much resilience during the negative ad test. A spot from Jeb Bush’s Super PAC Right to Rise, which portrayed Trump and Clinton as ideological soulmates, was judged totally unconvincing – “old news.” A web ad from John Kasich’s campaign, which compared Trump to Adolf Hitler, was viewed as embarrassing for Kasich. Only a commercial with angry ex-Trump employees was seen as damaging, evoking memories of Mitt Romney’s 2012 loss. (Coincidentally, at least one anti-Trump group is developing a spot about workers who were left stranded by Trump business deals.)

Ads – and tweets – that displayed Trump’s most outrageous quotes generallystrengthened the group’s support. One super-cut of Trump’s insults of his fellow Republicans had the group in stiches. “What he said about Jeb is what I think – low energy,” said a middle-aged man named Ray. The only Trump “gaffe” that stung was his mockery of reporter Serge Kovaleski, whose physical disability Trump seemed to be imitating as he derided him. “Not his best moment,” said a retiree named Tina. Yet Greg, a young Trump supporter whose confidence rose from 8 to 10 over the course of the night, said that the media had only used the gaffe to distract from the candidate’s winning message. A longer story about last night’s focus group will post on WashingtonPost.com later today.

Fresh polls show Trump’s continuing strength after his call for a ban on Muslim travel: 

• A New York Times national survey finds Trump commanding the support of 35 percent of Republican primary voters, leading his closest competitors, Cruz (16) and Carson (13) by a more than 2-to-1 margin. Key line from the paper’s write-up: “Overall, 24 percent of voters expressed concern and 40 percent fear about what Mr. Trump would do if elected president, whereas 23 percent said they are concerned and 34 percent scared about the possibility of a Clinton presidency.”
• Fox News was in the field with a poll when Trump announced his proposal to ban Muslims from entering the country. “It looks like his comments help him in South Carolina,” the cable channel reports. “Support for Trump increased eight points after his statement — from 30 percent the first two nights vs. 38 percent the last two nights.” The final tabulation puts him in first place at 35 percent among likely GOP voters to 15 percent for second-place Ben Carson. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz tied at 14 percent. From Fox’s write-up: “National security is the most important issue for GOP primary voters in deciding their vote. Trump holds a wide lead among voters who say national security is their top issue. … GOP primary voters think Trump is the Republican most likely to beat Clinton in the general election next year.  Some 42 percent feel that way. Next is Rubio at 14 percent.”

Respect must be paid: Trump continued flirting with an independent run last night: “If they don’t treat me with a certain amount of decorum and respect, if they don’t treat me as the front-runner … if the playing field is not level, then certainly all options are open,” he said on CNN, referring to the GOP establishment. “But that’s nothing I want to do. … I’ll know that over a period of a couple months. We’ll go through the primaries. We’ll see what happens, and I’ll make a determination.”

Important reality check – Trump knows exactly what he’s doing. Paul Schwartzman and Jenna Johnson write on today’s front page: “While it may seem like a lurching, chaotic campaign, Trump is, for the most part, a disciplined and methodical candidate, according to a Washington Post review of the businessman’s speeches, interviews and thousands of tweets and retweets over the past six months. .. The Post’s analysis found several qualities to Trump’s approach. First is a pattern of experimentation that suggests that he is testing his insults and attacks as he goes along. Like a team of corporate marketers, Trump understands the value of message-testing — but he appears to do it spontaneously, behind the lectern and on live television. … For all his apparent ad-libbing, Trump’s presentation is rife with words he often repeats.”

The Daily 202, PowerPost’s morning newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter.