The Poll Most Of The Media Missed

w Clip Information and Download: FLV File - For Website (1920x1080 /125MB)     .MP4 File - For Broadcast (1920x1080 /76MB) FLORIDA: Obama 51 - Romney 45 OHIO: Obama 50 - Romney 44 PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53 - Romney 42

President Barack Obama hits the magic 50 percent mark against Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with wide support for his plan to hike federal income taxes on upper-income voters, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today.

This is the first measure of likely voters in these swing states and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them - shows:

Florida: Obama edges Romney 51- 45 percent; Ohio: Obama over Romney by a slim 50 - 44 percent; Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 53 - 42 percent.

Support for President Obama's proposal to increase taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year is 58 - 37 percent in Florida, 60 - 37 percent in Ohio and 62 - 34 percent in Pennsylvania, the survey by Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times finds.

"If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and - if history is any guide - into a second term in the Oval Office," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally. Part of the reason may be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average. In Florida it has been dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case."

"All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy," Brown added.

"The president's strength among women is the dominant dynamic fueling his lead. It is this dynamic that argues for Romney to pick a female running mate. On the other hand, the president's lead in Ohio and Florida also argues for the selection by Romney of Sen. Rob Portman or Sen. Marco Rubio since he can't win the White House without the Buckeye and Sunshine states and presumably these home state senators would be the most helpful."

Among voters who pick Romney, 10 percent each in Florida and Ohio and 9 percent in Pennsylvania say they might change their mind. Among Obama supporters, 11 percent in Florida, 13 percent in Ohio and 15 percent in Pennsylvania say they might change their mind.

Florida

Obama leads 51 - 44 percent among women likely voters in Florida while men go 50 percent for the Democrat and 46 percent for the Republican.

Both candidates run strong among their own party's voters while independent voters split with 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney.

Among likely voters backing Obama, 65 percent strongly favor him while 24 percent like him with reservations and 10 percent say they pick Obama out of dislike for Romney.

Among Romney voters, 49 percent strongly favor him while 29 percent like him with reservations and 19 percent say they are voting against Obama.

Obama gets a 50 - 46 percent favorability rating, while Romney gets a split 41 - 42 percent score.

The economy is the most important issue in the election for 52 percent of Florida voters, with 22 percent who pick health care and 9 percent who cite the budget deficit.

Romney would do a better job on the economy, 47 percent of Florida likely voters say, while 45 percent pick Obama. Obama is better on health care, voters say 50 - 42 percent.

If Obama is reelected, his economic policies will hurt rather than help their financial situation, Florida voters say 38 - 23 percent, with 36 percent saying it won't matter. Romney gets a 31 - 30 percent split on whether he will help or hurt, with 34 percent saying no difference.

Presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns, 53 percent of voters say; 19 percent want to see one or two years of returns and 23 percent say don't release returns.

In Florida's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the Republican challenger 47 - 40 percent. Independent voters go 43 percent for Mack and 40 percent for Nelson.

Florida voters disapprove 52 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing.

"One of the few positives for Romney in Florida is that voters are split on whether his election would help or hurt their pocketbook, but by 38 - 23 percent they say the president's re- election would leave their wallets thinner,' Brown said.

Ohio

Women Ohio likely voters back Obama 58 - 37 percent, while men back Romney 52 - 42 percent. Independent voters go 47 percent for Obama and 44 percent for Romney.

Among Obama voters, 60 percent strongly favor him while 31 percent like him with reservations and 9 percent say their vote is against Romney.

Among Romney voters, 42 percent strongly favor him while 35 percent like him with reservations and 22 percent say they are voting against Obama.

Obama has a 51 - 45 percent favorability rating. Romney gets a 40 percent favorable rating and a 43 percent unfavorable score.

The economy is the most important issue in the election for 48 percent of Ohio voters, with 20 percent who pick health care and 12 percent who cite the budget deficit.

Obama would do a better job on the economy, 46 percent of Ohio likely voters say, while 45 percent pick Romney. Obama is better on health care, voters say 48 - 42 percent.

Obama's financial policies would hurt rather than help them personally, Ohio voters say 38 - 26 percent, while 34 percent see no difference. Romney would hurt rather than help, voters say 37 - 26 percent, while 34 percent see no difference.

Presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns, 51 percent of voters say; 18 percent want to see one or two years of returns and 28 percent say don't release returns.

In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger 51 - 39 percent, with a 49 - 38 percent lead among independent voters.

Ohio voters approve 47 - 38 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing.

"This is our first likely voter survey of Gov. John Kasich, so we can't compare it to earlier surveys of registered voters," said Brown. "But the improvement in his approval rating is so big that it must be at least in part because of the improving economy in the state."

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania women voters back Obama 59 - 35 percent, while men go 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Independent voters back Obama 58 - 36 percent.

Among Obama voters, 59 percent strongly favor him while 33 percent like him with reservations and 7 percent say their vote is against Romney.

Among Romney voters, 41 percent strongly favor him while 37 percent like him with reservations and 22 percent say they are voting against Obama.

Obama has a 53 - 42 percent favorability rating, while Romney has a negative 39 - 47 percent favorability rating.

The economy is the most important issue in the election for 54 percent of Pennsylvania voters, with 20 percent who pick health care and 8 percent who cite the budget deficit.

Obama would do a better job on the economy than Romney, Pennsylvania likely voters say 48 - 44 percent. The president is better on health care, voters say 51 - 41 percent.

Obama's policies would hurt rather than help them, Pennsylvania voters say 37 - 23 percent, while 37 percent see no difference. Romney would hurt rather than help, voters say 32 - 26 percent, while 37 percent see no difference.

Presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns, 54 percent of voters say; 17 percent want to see one or two years of returns and 25 percent say don't release returns.

In Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Robert Casey Jr. leads coal mine owner Tom Smith, the Republican challenger, 55 - 37 percent, with a 61 - 33 percent lead among independent voters.

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 45 - 38 percent of the job Gov. Tom Corbett is doing.

"President Barack Obama is ahead by just about every measure in the Keystone State: He's got a double digit lead; his voters seem more committed to him and Pennsylvanians like him more," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Bob Casey seems to be sailing toward reelection as his Republican coal mine owner opponent Tom Smith fights a name recognition battle and fails to gain any traction."

From July 24 - 30, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with CBS News and The New York Times, surveyed:

1,177 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent; 1,193 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,168 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. For individual statewide crosstabs call (203) 582-5201 or click: Crosstabs by State

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 51% 50% 53% Romney 45 44 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 4 4 4

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS...... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 FL OH PA Mind made up 89% 87% 87% Might change 10 12 12 DK/NA - 1 1

1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS.... OBAMA Q1......... FL OH PA Mind made up 89% 86% 84% Might change 11 13 15 DK/NA - 1 1

1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS.... ROMNEY Q1........ FL OH PA Mind made up 90% 89% 90% Might change 10 10 9 DK/NA - 1 1

2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favorable 41% 40% 39% Unfavorable 42 43 47 Hvn't hrd enough 14 15 11 REFUSED 3 3 3

3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favorable 50% 51% 53% Unfavorable 46 45 42 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 2 REFUSED 2 2 3

4a. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS.... OBAMA Q1......... FL OH PA Strongly favor 65% 60% 59% Like/Reservations 24 31 33 Dislike Romney 10 9 7 DK/NA 1 1 1

4b. (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama?

LIKELY VOTERS.... ROMNEY Q1........ FL OH PA Strongly favor 49% 42% 41% Like/Reservations 29 35 37 Dislike Obama 19 22 22 DK/NA 3 1 1

5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson(FL)/Sherrod Brown(OH)/Bob Casey Jr.(PA) the Democrat and Connie Mack(FL)/Josh Mandel(OH)/Tom Smith(PA) the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson(FL)/Brown(OH)/Casey Jr.(PA) or Mack(FL)/Mandel(OH)/Smith(PA)? (Table includes leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Democrat 47% 51% 55% Republican 40 39 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - DK/NA 12 9 8

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott(FL)/John Kasich(OH)/Tom Corbett(PA) is handling his job as Governor?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Approve 36% 47% 38% Disapprove 52 38 45 DK/NA 13 15 17

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Approve 48% 48% 49% Disapprove 48 48 46 DK/NA 4 3 4

8. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you, national security, the economy, health care, the budget deficit, taxes, immigration, or something else?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA National security 3% 4% 3% The economy 52 48 54 Health care 22 20 20 The budget deficit 9 12 8 Taxes 5 5 6 Immigration 2 2 1 Something else 5 7 7 DK/NA 2 2 2

9. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA More 32% 32% 29% Less 19 21 22 About the same 49 47 49 DK/NA 1 - -

10. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Better 26% 26% 20% Worse 41 39 39 The same 32 34 39 DK/NA 1 1 2

11. Do you think (Florida/Ohio/Pennsylvania)'s economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Better 23% 33% 16% Worse 32 26 32 The same 43 40 49 DK/NA 2 1 3

12. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Yes 55% 55% 58% No 42 43 39 DK/NA 3 2 3

13. Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Yes 42% 38% 39% No 49 55 54 DK/NA 9 7 7

14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 45% 46% 48% Romney 47 45 44 DK/NA 9 8 7

15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 50% 48% 51% Romney 42 42 41 DK/NA 8 9 8

16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - national security, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 48% 50% 50% Romney 44 41 40 DK/NA 8 9 9

17. If Barack Obama is reelected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Help 23% 26% 23% Hurt 38 38 37 No difference 36 34 37 DK/NA 3 1 3

18. If Mitt Romney is elected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Help 31% 26% 26% Hurt 30 37 32 No difference 34 34 37 DK/NA 4 4 5

19. From what you have read or heard, does Mitt Romney have the right kind of business experience to get the economy creating jobs again or is Romney's kind of business experience too focused on making profits?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Right experience 42% 41% 42% Focused on profits 48 50 51 DK/NA 10 9 8

20. Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies, A) They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR B) They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR C) They are not improving the economy and probably never will.

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA A)Improving now 25% 24% 21% B)Will improve 30 30 35 C)Will never improve 43 44 42 ECONOMY WORSE(VOL) 1 - - DK/NA 1 1 1

21. Do you think presidential candidates should publicly release several years of tax returns, or is releasing only one or two years of tax returns necessary, or don't you think it is necessary for presidential candidates to release any of their tax returns?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Several years 53% 51% 54% One or two years 19 18 17 Not necessary 23 28 25 DK/NA 5 3 4

22. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Support 58% 60% 62% Oppose 37 37 34 DK/NA 6 3 3

23. How important will television campaign ads be to your vote for President this year, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Very important 10% 8% 7% Smwht important 14 14 14 Not so important 17 20 23 Not important at all 58 58 56 DK/NA - 1 -

24. Have you seen any commercials on television for Mitt Romney, or not? IF YES: Did most of Mitt Romney's television commercials spend more time explaining what Mitt Romney stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Barack Obama?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Yes/Explained 20% 21% 18% Yes/Attacked Obama 62 62 51 No/Haven't seen 8 7 21 DK/NA 10 9 10

25. Have you seen any commercials on television for Barack Obama, or not? IF YES: Did most of Barack Obama's television commercials spend more time explaining what Barack Obama stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Mitt Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Yes/Explained 24% 28% 24% Yes/Attacked Romney 57 55 50 No/Haven't seen 7 7 16 DK/NA 12 10 10 Additional info by state: Florida: Crosstabs Demographic Summary Ohio: Crosstabs Demographic Summary Pennsylvania: Crosstabs Demographic Summary