Obama Leads in South Carolina and Florida

UPDATE- 01-21-12 10AM EST.

PPP is out with its final numbers going into tomorrow's South Carolina primary. It's 37% Gingrich, 28% Romney, 16% Santorum, 14% Paul. That's polling of 1540 voters over the last three days. In the calls they made tonight, Newt was up 40% to 26% over Romney. One night, especially a Friday night, is not much to go on. But it's in line with the trend since Monday which has shown Gingrich rocketing into the lead.

Anything can happen. Polls can be wrong. But polls seldom give us such clear guidance on what to expect.

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UPDATE -01-19-12 10:00 AM EST.

Since Santorum officially won Iowa, and with a Gingrich victory increasingly likely in South Carolina, what is the Romney camp to do with a 1 in 3 record in these early primaries? And if this is the beginning of the march toward a brokered convention, how long till we start to see either Romney or Gingrich flirt heavily with the Ron Paul faction of their party? Finally, what about the evangelical base that has thrown its support behind Santorum? Can establishment Republicans get them to swallow a Gingrich candidacy?

Read more: http://www.care2.com/causes/morning-mix-newts-surge-and-romneys-fizzle.html#ixzz1jzzdk3zP

PPP: Gingrich Jumps To Six Point Lead In SC

New numbers from Public Policy Polling (D) show former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with a six point lead in a survey conducted over the last two days, after an impressive debate performance on Monday night. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 29 percent after leading the state for the last ten days, and has fallen to second in our TPM Poll Average.

PPP will continue polling on Friday, which will provide some insight on how South Carolina GOP voters saw the final debate in the state on Thursday night.

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 There were hints and drabs of information yesterday suggesting that Gingrich was making a big move in South Carolina. And now three new polls this morning confirm it................................

 InsiderAdvantage snap poll conducted Wednesday showed Gingrich actually leading by three over Romney, 32 – 29, so the numbers are definitely tightening as the candidates cross the finish line.Our TPM Poll Average now shows Romney’s lead a little over one percent after starting the week with a more than ten point advantage.

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New polls of South Carolina and Florida hint that the GOP’s chances of taking the White House are evaporating as Barack Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in each state.

The biggest surprise is in the new NBC/Marist poll of South Carolina, where Obama’s approval rating is a not too upside down for a reliable red state 44%/48%. The big shock is that President Obama has small leads over both Newt Gingrich (46%-42%), and Mitt Romney (45%-42%). Both of Obama’s narrow leads are outside the poll’s 2.1% margin of error. A new Winthrop poll has also found that President Obama is more popular than Republican South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. The Winthrop Poll gives Obama nearly identical to NBC 44.8% approval rating, and only 34.6% approve of Gov. Haley.

Gingrich is absolutely destroying Romney in South Carolina among likely primary voters 42%-23%. Newt Gingrich leads Mitt Romney 51%-20% among tea partiers. Romney’s biggest problem in the state is that Republicans are more interested in a candidate who shares their values (29%), and is close to them on the issues (26%) than one that can beat Obama (20%). By a margin of 61%-53% Republicans found Gingrich more acceptable than Romney, and 44% of Republicans believed that Romney was acceptable with reservations or not acceptable at all. Only 26% of likely primary voters considered Romney a conservative.

In Florida, Obama has seen his approval rating jump five points since October. It is within the margin of error, but more voters now approve of Obama than disapprove (46%-45%). Obama now leads Romney by seven points, (48%-41%), and Gingrich by 12 points in the Sunshine State, (51%-39%). Newt Gingrich is blowing out Romney in Florida for the same reasons that he is trouncing him in South Carolina. Florida Republicans said that it was more important to them that a candidate shared their values (26%) and is close to them on the issues (28%) than can beat Obama (23%).

Gingrich also holds a commanding lead over Romney among tea partiers, (57%-22%). Among likely GOP primary voters, 58% found Mitt Romney to be an acceptable candidate, but 28% felt that he was acceptable with reservations 10% felt that he was not acceptable at all. Sixty five percent of likely GOP primary voters found Newt Gingrich acceptable. Only 20% felt that he was acceptable with reservations and 11% believed that he was not acceptable.

Within the Republican Party what is happening is a repeat of the 2010 election. GOP primary voters in South Carolina and Florida are more concerned with shared values and positions than they are with electability. Mitt Romney’s entire campaign is built around the theme of being able to defeat Obama, but Republican voters would rather lose with someone who they feel shares their values than potentially win with Mitt Romney. The difference between Gingrich and Romney is that Newt knows how to woo the base. In two separate presidential campaigns, Romney has not been able to ease doubts about his conservative cred. It is a pretty safe bet that those doubts are never going to go away.

Obama’s popularity is improving even in places like South Carolina because of his focus on creating jobs and the economy. While the Republican nomination has turned into an ideological spitting contest over who can cut the most taxes and be the most extreme conservative, Obama has been talking about the economy and creating jobs every single day for months now.

The jobs message is powerful, and Republicans have turned the issue over to Obama by promising to create jobs by following the same failed policies of George W. Bush. In a bad economy, a platform of tax cuts for the rich and more trickle down is not what voters want to hear. They want the government to do something, and Obama is the only candidate who has offered any real solutions.

It would be a miracle if Obama won South Carolina, but the combination of bad candidates and even worse message has made President Obama the favorite as we head into 2012. As long as Obama keeps hammering the jobs message and the economy keeps improving his polling and approval ratings will go up, and Republicans will see their dream of making Barack Obama a one term president shattered.