Democrats Losing 2010 BIG TIME

Year-Long Project Tracking the Participation and Preference Among the Rising American Electorate

Democrats need to make substantial political progress in the next six months. The basic problem is math. Currently independent voters prefer Republicans over Democrats by two to one in congressional trial heats. Other groups, such as blue collar whites and white seniors are similarly lopsided in their preferences. More competitive margins are possible with these groups, but that could come too late, and there are more immediate places to make up the numbers.

Good places to start are among unmarried women, young people and people of color. Voters we call the Rising American Electorate (RAE), who make up the majority of the voting age population in the country and voters who drove progressive victories in 2006 and 2008. They remain supportive but not nearly in the same numbers. They can help rescue Democrats from a very forgettable electoral cycle in 2010. Unmarried women alone make up 25 percent of the population and can have the biggest impact.

This joint project by Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund and Democracy Corps highlights distinct opportunities among these voters, but also core problems that need real attention and major political investments to make right.

Voters in the Rising American Electorate are less engaged than other voters. Historically, these voters typically drop out of off-year elections in greater than average numbers. This survey continues to show a turn out problem, which we have tracked all year among these voters.

Democratic margins are down among these voters relative to 2008 and even 2006, particularly among unmarried women and the young. Support among African–Americans remains strong, but some evidence emerges that Hispanic support is down.

The pay–off for attending to this problem is made plain in the margins among those voters in the Rising American Electorate who are least likely to vote. Among RAE likely voters, Democrats enjoy a 58 to 32 percent margin (26 points) in congressional balloting, a decent number, but down from prior cycles and not enough to compensate for losses elsewhere. Among 2008 voters who say they might not vote in 2010, however, this margin jumps to 39 points (63 to 24 percent), close to what Democrats saw in the last election cycle.

Source: Democracy Corps

In this release

Overview

Analysis

Analysis - PDF

Frequency Questionnaire - PDF

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