Independent Voters Pull Back From Republicans

Independent Voters Pull Back From Republicans

In the New York Times op-ed piece today, ‘A Win is a Win,’ we highlight some very big changes. Yes, there has been some movement on health care – before the vote – but more dramatic is the pull back from Republican members of Congress and their party, as voters watch the scene evolving in Washington. Independent voters who did not approve of Democratic governance over the past year seemed to be re–assessing their feelings about the different players.

This pullback is very specific to the Republicans – and does not represent any gain for Democrats or any confidence gain in their direction. Health care’s passage could change perceptions in very important ways, though it is too early to tell. Over the long term, it could be a ‘game–changer.’ But for now, the economy is a bigger driver. Less and less people believe the country is on the right track, or that the economy is getting better or benefiting them – and Democrats have lost serious ground on whom you trust to handle the economy. This poll showed the Democrats’ advantage in party identification drop to just 2 points, and narrowing further to no advantage once independent–lean voters are allocated. This makes it all the more believable, then, that ‘something is happening’ to perceptions of the Republicans.

The poll finds ratings of the Republican Party and its incumbent House members taking a sharp fall this month. Republicans have also slipped in the hypothetical congressional ballot with independent voters turning away from the GOP.

Especially troubling for Republicans is the fact that their ratings and vote advantage have slipped, while the Democrats’ overall party identification continues to slide among the likely electorate. Thirty–five percent of likely voters identify as Democrat, 33 percent as Republican and 31 percent as independent. This 2–point gap in Democratic–Republican identification is the narrowest in Democracy Corps polling over the last two years.

This analysis is based on a Democracy Corps survey among 1,016 2008 voters (850 likely 2010 voters) conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research from March 15–18, 2010.

The op–ed by Stan Greenberg first appeared on the New York Times webpage on March 23, 2010.